Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6243…9354 crypto 54 markets active 2d ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-42%) realized −$50 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$45
economics 29% −$5
tech 4% −$5
world 2% +$5
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 5 -35.8% -41.9% 60% 20% -36.4%
≤90d 21 -22.1% -29.5% 76% 5% -25.7%
all 53 -33.6% -39.9% 55% 8% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 8% -47.5%
10% -45.7% 4% -52.5%
15% -50.9% 2% -57.1%
20% -55.7% 2% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage186d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Apr 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Apr 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 19? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 12? Mar 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 8? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 23? Mar 07 $3 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Mar 07 $1 +$4 +426%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 20? Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 20? Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 20? Feb 23 $1 $0 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 16? Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 2? Feb 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Feb 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 2? Feb 15 $1 $0 +8%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 01 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 27? Jan 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13? Jan 21 $1 $0 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14? Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 28? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 27? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 36d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 69d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? BUY No 93¢ $1 80d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY No 98¢ $1 80d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? BUY No 99¢ $1 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 101d
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 96 history records