Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6247…9ff3 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,011 (+118%) realized +$2,011 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%3W / 17L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$1,652
sports 6% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.9% -23.9% 15% 15% +77.0%
≤30d 20 -15.9% -23.9% 15% 15% +77.0%
≤90d 20 -15.9% -23.9% 15% 15% +77.0%
all 20 -15.9% -23.9% 15% 15% +77.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 15% +77.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 15% +60.0%
15% -37.8% 15% +44.6%
20% -43.9% 15% +30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +95% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +95% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -99% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$880 vs −$64 · ×13.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,011
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses3 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $307 −$262 -85%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $113 −$110 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $57 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $51 +$333 +649%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $345 +$2,238 +648%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$54 -53%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $384 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $2,583 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $143 27h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 29h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 29h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records