Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x6249…cee9 sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-1%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%136W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$5
14 days−$101
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$567
other 10% +$367
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 67% -12.1%
≤30d 34 +8.6% -1.8% 74% 74% -5.3%
≤90d 116 -4.5% -13.6% 64% 63% -11.0%
all 211 -3.0% -12.2% 64% 63% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 63% -10.7%
10% -20.6% 56% -19.2%
15% -28.3% 40% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 23% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$68 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses136 / 75
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)211 / 211
History coverage128d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 211 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 29 $55 +$25 +45%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $56 +$26 +46%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $159 −$156 -98%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $149 −$148 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $128 +$53 +41%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $100 +$155 +155%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $161 +$42 +26%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $120 +$41 +34%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $73 +$47 +64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $57 +$16 +28%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $94 +$54 +57%
ITF Wuning: Anchisa Chanta vs Mai Hontama Jun 12 $94 +$23 +24%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $135 +$20 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $94 +$41 +43%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $56 +$101 +181%
ITF Wuning: Ekaterina Maklakova vs Rina Saigo Jun 10 $93 −$92 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Stefani Webb vs Nanari Katsumi Jun 10 $93 −$92 -99%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $138 +$34 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $93 +$45 +48%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $186 −$185 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $186 +$37 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $232 +$34 +15%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $186 +$45 +24%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Reina Goto Jun 06 $239 +$90 +38%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $185 +$53 +29%
ITF Sumter: Eryn Cayetano vs Kristina Liutova Jun 05 $188 +$53 +28%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $146 −$144 -99%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $87 +$27 +31%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 03 $58 +$29 +50%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 02 $98 +$53 +54%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nouza/Oberleitner vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 02 $57 +$40 +70%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Jennifer Ruggeri May 29 $57 −$57 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean May 25 $58 −$57 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Bejlek vs Sloane Stephens May 24 $58 −$57 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Beatriz Haddad Maia May 24 $80 −$79 -99%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5 May 24 $57 +$23 +40%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $57 +$47 +81%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $58 +$54 +93%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Katarina Zavatska vs Lucia Bronzetti May 22 $58 +$42 +73%
ITF Changwon: Arina Varaksina vs Sera Nishimoto May 22 $93 +$40 +43%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $74 +$18 +24%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Suzan Lamens May 21 $58 +$17 +29%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Joao Lucas Da Silva May 20 $64 +$57 +89%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Colton Smith May 20 $88 +$38 +43%
Geneva Open: Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar May 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 20 $57 −$6 -11%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnau May 19 $70 +$26 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Fabian Marozsan SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $80 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Fabian Marozsan 68¢ $55 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Rebecca Sramkova 52¢ $56 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 5d
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton BUY Yecong Mo 48¢ $159 13d
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara BUY Natsumi Kawaguchi 78¢ $149 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $181 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $128 13d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 39¢ $100 14d
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 53¢ $103 14d
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon SELL Nadia Podoroska 100¢ $204 14d
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Nadia Podoroska 79¢ $161 15d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston SELL Antonia Ruzic 100¢ $161 15d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 74¢ $120 15d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Los Angeles Sparks 100¢ $120 15d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 60¢ $73 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $73 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $57 15d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 100¢ $148 17d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 63¢ $94 17d
ITF Wuning: Anchisa Chanta vs Mai Hontama SELL Mai Hontama 100¢ $117 17d
ITF Wuning: Anchisa Chanta vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 80¢ $94 17d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nicolas Kicker 66¢ $155 17d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 56¢ $135 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $94 17d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $157 18d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 35¢ $56 18d
ITF Wuning: Ekaterina Maklakova vs Rina Saigo BUY Rina Saigo 52¢ $93 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 360 history records