Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6249…e443 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$292 (-44%) realized −$291 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$278
other 36% −$12
world 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +101.0% +81.9% 100% 100% +81.9%
≤90d 9 +2.4% -7.4% 89% 22% -68.5%
all 12 -6.5% -15.4% 83% 17% -63.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 17% -63.8%
10% -23.5% 8% -67.3%
15% -30.9% 8% -70.5%
20% -37.7% 8% -73.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$162 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage176d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $186 $184 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 25 $35 +$36 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 16 $319 −$314 -98%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026? Apr 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? Apr 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Apr 16 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026? Apr 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by January 31? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
US bank failure by January 31? Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? Jan 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Meta reach $770 in December? Jan 07 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $187 1h
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 49¢ $35 38d
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Kyler Phillips 43¢ $319 66d
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 87d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 97d
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $8 100d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $10 106d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 115d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 88¢ $8 134d
US bank failure by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 142d
Will MrBeast hit 115 billion views by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $23 165d
Will Meta reach $770 in December? BUY No 100¢ $20 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.28 · official $184.28 (match) · 23 history records