Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x624c…25f3 other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$720 (+1%) realized +$716 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%30W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$1,031per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$16
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$112
politics 40% −$67
sports 10% +$886
culture 3% −$4
world 2% −$7
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -1.4% -10.8% 23% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 9% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 9% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 8% -25.7%
20% -34.2% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,569) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$8 · ×6.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1,157
Realized+$716
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses30 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,031
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $892 $896 +$4 (+0%)
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $261 $261 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $365 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,527 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,434 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,458 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,182 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,548 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,211 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 03 $810 +$1 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $3,260 −$5 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3,179 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $4,563 −$5 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 19 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $1,697 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,706 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,692 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,688 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $9,520 −$10 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $4,969 −$6 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $2,487 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,598 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $899 +$2 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $5,045 −$5 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,400 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,111 −$3 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1,372 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $2,237 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,403 −$1 -0%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 07 $34 $0 +0%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $715 +$981 +137%
Wizards vs. Pistons Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bucks Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15? Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $261 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $364 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $365 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $649 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $892 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,616 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,677 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,679 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,662 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,664 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,640 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,609 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,612 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,628 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,630 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,181 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,182 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,628 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,630 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,075 22d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,541 22d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,543 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,157.03 · official $1,157.03 (match) · 449 history records