Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x624d…ff0a sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$122 (-9%) realized −$86 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$64
other 48% +$179
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +37.0% +24.0% 73% 64% +14.3%
≤30d 11 +37.0% +24.0% 73% 64% +14.3%
≤90d 11 +37.0% +24.0% 73% 64% +14.3%
all 11 +37.0% +24.0% 73% 64% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.0% 64% +14.3%
10% +12.1% 64% +3.3%
15% +1.3% 64% -6.7%
20% -8.7% 64% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$133 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $150 $114 −$36 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $71 +$46 +65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $16 +$2 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $121 +$69 +57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $118 +$162 +137%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $36 +$23 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $101 +$245 +242%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.47 · official $114.47 (match) · 21 history records