Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x624e…a1f4 other 7 markets active 5h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$2
sports 31% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +21.3% +9.7% 100% 100% +9.7%
≤30d 1 +21.3% +9.7% 100% 100% +9.7%
≤90d 1 +21.3% +9.7% 100% 100% +9.7%
all 1 +21.3% +9.7% 100% 100% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 100% +9.7%
10% -0.8% 0% -0.8%
15% -10.3% 0% -10.3%
20% -19.1% 0% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 87¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 89¢ 82¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 66¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $5 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 5h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 89¢ $10 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $10 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $10 6d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.67 · official $52.68 (match) · 15 history records