Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

62 0x624e…770e sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$3 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-12.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-3.4%	-12.6%	0%	0%	-12.6%
≤30d	1	-3.4%	-12.6%	0%	0%	-12.6%
≤90d	1	-3.4%	-12.6%	0%	0%	-12.6%
all	1	-3.4%	-12.6%	0%	0%	-12.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.6%	0%	-12.6%
10%	-20.9%	0%	-20.9%
15%	-28.6%	0%	-28.6%
20%	-35.6%	0%	-35.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$0 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$379

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova	Linda Noskova	60¢	66¢	$200	$218	+$18 (+9%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini	Errani/Paolini	80¢	71¢	$100	$89	−$11 (-11%)
Netherlands leading at halftime?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$60	$60	−$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)	Noskova	72¢	79¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+10%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	No	33¢	32¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)	Jun 22	$10	$0	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini	BUY Errani/Paolini	80¢	$101	1h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova	BUY Linda Noskova	60¢	$202	2h
Netherlands leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	2h
Netherlands leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	2h
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)	BUY Noskova	72¢	$10	7h
Set Handicap: Draper (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)	BUY Nakashima	51¢	$10	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	33¢	$1	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	67¢	$1	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.59 · official $378.59 (match) · 10 history records