Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x6253…5331 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,886per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 99% −$19
crypto 1% $0
other 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤30d 1 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤90d 3 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
all 9 +1.9% -7.8% 89% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -24.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage223d
Avg bet$1,886
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jun 22 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Mar 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Feb 24 $50 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $18,659 −$19 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 20 $8 $0 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Jan 19 $8 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $13 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $13 103d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $27 105d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 116d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $27 117d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? SELL No 100¢ $50 118d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 128d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $18,640 146d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $18,659 146d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 223d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 97¢ $8 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.54 · official $27.54 (match) · 19 history records