Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6254…60a9 crypto 430 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$657 (+2%) realized +$770 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%201W / 224L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,049now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days+$67
14 days+$353
30 days+$682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,650
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -10.0% -18.5% 38% 38% -3.8%
≤30d 120 +6.8% -3.4% 46% 46% -2.6%
≤90d 425 +5.9% -4.2% 47% 47% -1.3%
all 425 +5.9% -4.2% 47% 47% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 47% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 47% -10.7%
15% -21.7% 46% -19.3%
20% -29.4% 45% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$54 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$1,049
Realized+$770
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses201 / 224
Open positions5
Markets (closed)425 / 430
History coverage66d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 53¢ 50¢ $491 $460 −$31 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 58¢ 50¢ $283 $243 −$40 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 56¢ 50¢ $224 $198 −$26 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $107 $99 −$8 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 57¢ 50¢ $57 $50 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $114 +$86 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $112 +$88 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $114 +$86 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$73 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$70 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $153 +$159 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $488 +$512 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $115 −$112 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $302 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $133 −$131 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$70 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $58 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$44 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $107 +$93 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $110 +$90 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$70 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $116 +$82 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$45 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $349 +$251 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $141 −$138 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $57 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $55 +$45 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $247 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,049.34 · official $1,049.34 (match) · 3000 history records