Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
62 0x6257…52b3 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-8%) realized −$56 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$48
other 21% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.7% -14.6% 60% 47% +7.2%
≤30d 15 -5.7% -14.6% 60% 47% +7.2%
≤90d 20 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 50% -1.3%
all 20 +4.9% -5.1% 60% 50% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 50% -1.3%
10% -14.2% 45% -10.7%
15% -22.5% 35% -19.4%
20% -30.1% 20% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage58d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $139 $138 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$91 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 21 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 20 $11 +$27 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 20 $11 +$8 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $37 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $58 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.48 · official $138.48 (match) · 37 history records