Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6257…01bf crypto 1264 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$177 (-3%) realized −$177 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%665W / 598L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$16
14 days−$62
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$297
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 501 +7.2% -3.0% 51% 51% -10.2%
≤30d 1137 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 51% -13.9%
≤90d 1238 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 52% -13.7%
all 1263 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 52% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 52% -13.5%
10% -19.0% 51% -21.8%
15% -26.9% 32% -29.3%
20% -34.0% 13% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses665 / 598
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1263 / 1264
History coverage109d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1263 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2956 history records