Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6258…b225 sports 48 markets active 12d ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$256 (-22%) realized −$256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$243
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$194
sports 38% −$37
crypto 6% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 27 +17.4% +6.2% 30% 30% -27.8%
≤90d 48 +4.9% -5.0% 40% 35% -30.7%
all 48 +4.9% -5.0% 40% 35% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 35% -30.7%
10% -14.1% 33% -37.4%
15% -22.4% 33% -43.4%
20% -30.0% 27% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$23 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage70d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$87 +57%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$22 +42%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$32 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$40 +1290%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $20 −$20 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 Apr 21 $36 +$14 +40%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $15 +$19 +129%
Nuggets vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5 Apr 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5 Apr 10 $15 +$10 +67%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 09 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $13 +$1 +8%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5 Apr 09 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 09 $6 −$1 -19%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $7 +$5 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 12d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 12d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 12d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 12d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 12d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $239 12d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 12d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 12d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 13d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $52 13d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $10 15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 15d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 15d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 15d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 16d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $3 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $51 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records