Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x625a…c8ac crypto 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-5%) realized −$41 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%143W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$61
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$43
other 41% −$38
sports 9% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +67.1% +51.2% 76% 67% +33.7%
≤30d 29 +38.7% +25.5% 59% 52% -18.8%
≤90d 91 +12.9% +2.2% 71% 43% -18.5%
all 202 +5.6% -4.4% 71% 43% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 43% -16.4%
10% -13.6% 30% -24.4%
15% -21.9% 23% -31.7%
20% -29.6% 17% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses143 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)202 / 219
History coverage92d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 58¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$30 +119%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$4 -56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$2 +216%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +70%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 27 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 27 $1 +$3 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 27 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 26 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 26 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 26 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 26 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 26 $1 +$1 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $106 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $100 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 7h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 32h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $93 44h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.39 · official $394.39 (match) · 401 history records