Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x625c…ed94 crypto 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48 (-7%) realized −$49 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%116W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$51
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$40
other 12% −$10
sports 4% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -42.5% -48.0% 17% 15% -40.1%
≤30d 93 -41.9% -47.4% 17% 15% -39.7%
≤90d 167 -56.0% -60.2% 16% 11% -49.4%
all 306 -4.2% -13.3% 38% 30% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 30% -16.4%
10% -21.6% 24% -24.4%
15% -29.2% 20% -31.7%
20% -36.1% 17% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses116 / 190
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)306 / 318
History coverage112d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 30¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+233%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 95¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -43%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 +$4 +388%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 -42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -61%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -80%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 17m
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 18m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $1 39m
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 39m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 42m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 30¢ $1 45m
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 50m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $3 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $1 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 19h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 19h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY $1 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-0 BUY $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.77 · official $6.77 · 1056 history records