Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

62 0x6260…bd7c other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$20 (-25%) realized −$19 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$10 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$57

Realized−$19

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions9

Markets (closed)2 / 11

History coverage3d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$16	$16	−$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$11	$11	−$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Yes	49¢	50¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	82¢	80¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-4%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	46m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$9	1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$4	1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$5	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$2	1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$4	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$4	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$1	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	70¢	$7	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.29 · official $57.29 (match) · 14 history records