Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
62 0x6261…4adb sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,010 (+10%) realized +$1,068 · open +$3,942
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,858per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$420est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$12,542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$8,928
other 26% +$3,368
crypto 8% −$4,095
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -54.8% -59.1% 33% 33% +6.5%
≤30d 8 -40.5% -46.1% 38% 38% -0.7%
≤90d 8 -40.5% -46.1% 38% 38% -0.7%
all 8 -40.5% -46.1% 38% 38% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.1% 38% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -51.3% 38% -10.2%
15% -56.0% 25% -18.9%
20% -60.3% 12% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,585 vs −$1,899 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$12,542
Realized+$1,068
Unrealized+$3,942
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$420
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage18d
Avg bet$5,858
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 51¢ 74¢ $8,600 $12,542 +$3,942 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $13,541 +$3,568 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,049 −$2,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $19,172 +$8,585 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $3,049 −$3,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,523 +$1,602 +105%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $4,257 −$4,095 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $5,059 10m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $4,979 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $305 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $3,357 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $3,140 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $79 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,800 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,125 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $100 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5,849 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $2,049 3h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,536 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $5,067 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $205 41h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $3,049 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $14,105 41h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12,005 3d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 48¢ $1,523 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $520 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1,040 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1,040 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1,559 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,541.65 · official $12,541.65 (match) · 34 history records