Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6261…2e11 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,208 (-8%) realized −$2,566 · open −$1,642
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate61%48W / 31L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$567per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,754
7 days−$2,754
14 days−$2,645
30 days−$2,654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2,423
other 32% −$2,365
finance 18% +$446
tech 0% −$4
sports 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.2% -12.4% 75% 12% -21.3%
≤30d 72 -3.1% -12.3% 60% 14% -19.4%
≤90d 79 -3.8% -13.0% 61% 13% -19.5%
all 79 -3.8% -13.0% 61% 13% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 13% -19.5%
10% -21.3% 5% -27.2%
15% -28.9% 3% -34.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$109 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$25,354
Realized−$2,566
Unrealized−$1,642
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses48 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)79 / 93
History coverage36d
Avg bet$567
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 93¢ $5,869 $5,519 −$350 (-6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 78¢ $4,765 $4,203 −$562 (-12%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $4,005 $4,020 +$15 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 79¢ 71¢ $4,166 $3,712 −$454 (-11%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 90¢ 93¢ $2,944 $3,042 +$98 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 85¢ $2,834 $2,585 −$249 (-9%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? No 79¢ 73¢ $1,672 $1,541 −$131 (-8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $662 $657 −$5 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 89¢ 62¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 87¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? No 90¢ 81¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 15 $3,094 +$81 +3%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,029 −$1,859 -37%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 14 $2,974 +$182 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $4,082 −$1,424 -35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6,005 +$264 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2,681 +$114 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $16 $0 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 30 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 30 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $1 $0 -7%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +10%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 27 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? May 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of May 25 2026? May 27 $5 −$1 -29%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 26 $5 $0 -6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 26 $10 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? May 24 $5 −$1 -14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 $0 -5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May? May 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $7 +$3 +41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $5 +$1 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $5 −$2 -29%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $25 −$4 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $12 −$2 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $532 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $66 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $28 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $28 11h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $19 12h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 12h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $29 12h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $270 13h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $174 13h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 14h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,920 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $51 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $19 15h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,993 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $61 15h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $186 16h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $128 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $37 17h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $3,003 17h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $167 17h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $246 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 93¢ $364 19h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $5,029 20h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $624 20h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $50 20h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 75¢ $205 21h
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $246 22h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,953 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,353.80 · official $25,353.81 (match) · 252 history records