Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6268…6031 other 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (429 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,637 (+180%) realized +$5,613 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%87W / 57L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day428.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$132
politics 33% +$256
other 27% +$111
tech 3% +$49
sports 1% +$7
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (429 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +19.0% +7.6% 60% 51% +16.7%
≤30d 144 +19.9% +8.5% 60% 51% +16.5%
≤90d 144 +19.9% +8.5% 60% 51% +16.5%
all 144 +19.9% +8.5% 60% 51% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover428.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.5% 51% +16.5%
10% ← realistic here -1.9% 39% +5.3%
15% -11.4% 31% -4.9%
20% -20.1% 24% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.19 per $1 lost it wins $11.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized+$5,613
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses87 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions52
Markets (closed)144 / 204
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day428.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $108 $133 +$25 (+23%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $21 $27 +$5 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 65¢ 87¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? Yes 25¢ 17¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Dinorah Figuera be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes $2 $6 +$3 (+129%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 76¢ 79¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes $4 $4 −$1 (-14%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 76¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $2 $2 +$1 (+34%)
Will Paddy Pimblett be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+227%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 21 $369 +$191 +52%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $11 +$1 +6%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $30 +$6 +21%
Will voter turnout be <52% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian p Jun 21 $0 $0 +33%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $61 +$11 +19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $33 +$5 +16%
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 21 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $180 +$26 +15%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $2 +$1 +24%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 21 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou Jun 21 $0 $0 +81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2 +$2 +82%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 21 $1 $0 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 6% or more? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% a Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 21 $24 +$8 +36%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $0 $0 +51%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$7 +133%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 21 $3 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 20 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$17 +236%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 20 $31 +$3 +9%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $22 +$8 +36%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $1 $0 -15%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 20 $17 +$28 +168%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $34 +$6 +16%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 20 $25 +$5 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $6 −$3 -60%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $0 $0 +42%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 −$4 -59%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 18m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 27m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 31m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 31m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 33m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $7 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No $4 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No $0 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No $0 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No $0 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $3 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $6 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $6 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $2 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $1 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No $0 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $0 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.55 · official $349.37 (match) · 3500 history records