Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
62 0x6268…757f other 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,241 (+92%) realized +$1,241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,217
14 days+$1,201
30 days+$1,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,223
other 16% −$23
world 1% +$1
weather 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +52.1% +37.6% 50% 50% +80.7%
≤30d 5 +19.6% +8.2% 60% 20% +71.1%
≤90d 6 +66.5% +50.6% 67% 33% +71.8%
all 6 +66.5% +50.6% 67% 33% +71.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.6% 33% +71.8%
10% +36.2% 33% +55.3%
15% +23.1% 33% +40.3%
20% +11.0% 33% +26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$11 · ×27.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×54.92 per $1 lost it wins $54.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage57d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,117 +$1,223 +109%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $103 −$5 -5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 18 $111 −$17 -15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24 Apr 25 $5 +$14 +301%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,117 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $98 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 7d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 63¢ $94 7d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 73¢ $111 8d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 62d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 62d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24 BUY Yes 24¢ $5 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records