Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x626b…5bc7 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 707d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+5%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$42
other 29% −$20
crypto 2% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +86.2% +68.5% 89% 6% -7.0%
≤30d 18 +86.2% +68.5% 89% 6% -7.0%
≤90d 18 +86.2% +68.5% 89% 6% -7.0%
all 34 +27.2% +15.1% 62% 18% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 18% -4.3%
10% +4.1% 18% -13.4%
15% -6.0% 15% -21.8%
20% -15.2% 15% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage707d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner 4ikibamboni 100¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ assists Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals Jun 24 $19 +$1 +7%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Gaubas vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Gueymard-Wayenburg vs. Ghetu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $1 +$19 +1636%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Draxl vs. Bertola: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -38%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Mar 06 $4 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 7? Dec 11 $7 +$4 +56%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Dec 07 $13 +$15 +117%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Nov 13 $0 $0 -30%
Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? Nov 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' record September opening? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala announce VP pick by Aug 7? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala announce VP pick on Monday? Sep 05 $1 +$2 +150%
Will $BTC reach 70k in July? Sep 05 $2 −$2 -100%
2024 July hottest on record? Sep 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump vs. Biden: Who raised more in June? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Colombia 97¢ $31 12h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Colombia 97¢ $1 12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $31 12h
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) BUY DR Congo 98¢ $36 12h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $19 12h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 98¢ $20 34h
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ assists BUY No 96¢ $19 34h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 95¢ $19 35h
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $19 35h
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $19 35h
Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 35h
Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals BUY No 91¢ $14 35h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY THE VISION 96¢ $19 41h
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 96¢ $19 42h
Gueymard-Wayenburg vs. Ghetu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over $1 42h
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 42h
Gaubas vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 42h
Draxl vs. Bertola: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 43h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 96¢ $19 44h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 78d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 66¢ $4 170d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) BUY Vitality 78¢ $10 194d
Ethereum Up or Down on December 7? BUY Down 64¢ $7 198d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) BUY Passion UA 46¢ $13 204d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 587d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 587d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 592d
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? BUY No $0 615d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.57 · official $49.57 (match) · 73 history records