Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6271…7495 sports 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%29W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$2
other 23% −$2
politics 22% −$1
crypto 9% −$1
economics 8% $0
tech 6% −$1
culture 4% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 142 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses29 / 113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage158d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $48 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $124 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $115 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte Feb 10 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $41 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 8d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $48 22d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $48 22d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 33d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 33d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $13 121d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 121d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $32 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $42 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $46 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $46 121d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $48 121d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $48 121d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $47 121d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $47 121d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 121d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 121d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $46 121d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $46 121d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 121d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 121d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $41 121d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $42 121d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 93¢ $49 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 578 history records