Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
62 0x6278…e828 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 517d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$789 (-6%) realized −$856 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$5,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$627
14 days−$851
30 days−$832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$2,305
sports 8% +$1,400
world 8% +$17
crypto 5% −$44
economics 3% +$85
tech 0% +$6
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +18.8% +7.5% 31% 31% -21.3%
≤30d 24 +53.1% +38.5% 38% 29% -20.5%
≤90d 26 +47.8% +33.8% 38% 31% -20.6%
all 32 +31.7% +19.2% 41% 34% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.2% 34% -20.7%
10% +7.8% 22% -28.3%
15% -2.6% 16% -35.2%
20% -12.2% 16% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$146 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

517d coverage
Net worth$5,875
Realized−$856
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions11
Markets (closed)32 / 43
History coverage517d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $1,000 $1,459 +$459 (+46%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,000 $1,048 +$48 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,000 $815 −$185 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $1,000 $649 −$351 (-35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $500 $556 +$56 (+11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $375 $535 +$160 (+43%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $230 $270 +$40 (+17%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 33¢ 32¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $303 $151 −$151 (-50%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$897 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 −$711 -70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $608 +$438 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$363 -72%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$173 +34%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$73 -71%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $551 −$319 -58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$28 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$31 +1521%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $165 +$28 +17%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,001 +$17 +2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $8 +$7 +84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? May 07 $100 +$16 +16%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 07 $100 −$46 -46%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $21 −$21 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $100 +$35 +35%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $200 +$34 +17%
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday? Jan 25 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week? Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $204 57m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $299 38h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $209 41h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 41h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $514 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 42h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 47h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $56 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $84 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $165 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $27 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $232 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $265 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,874.81 · official $5,877.31 (match) · 109 history records