Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
62 0x6279…f1bf politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$5
economics 22% −$2
other 17% −$2
world 13% −$2
crypto 12% −$3
culture 11% −$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 29 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage84d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $2,624 −$2 -0%
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 14 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 13 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $7 $0 -6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 17 $9 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $130 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,312 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,297 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,305 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,294 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,051 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $285 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,338 2d
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $68 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records