Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x627b…285b weather 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$837 (-3%) realized −$1,188 · open +$351
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%66W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3,459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$3,425
sports 39% +$87
other 15% −$335
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 238 -44.0% -49.3% 25% 21% -23.4%
≤30d 270 -46.2% -51.3% 24% 20% -30.8%
≤90d 270 -46.2% -51.3% 24% 20% -30.8%
all 270 -46.2% -51.3% 24% 20% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.3% 20% -30.8%
10% ← realistic here -55.9% 15% -37.4%
15% -60.2% 11% -43.5%
20% -64.1% 9% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$51 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3,459
Realized−$1,188
Unrealized+$351
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses66 / 204
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions23
Markets (closed)270 / 196
History coverage9d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $839 $892 +$54 (+6%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 96¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? No 78¢ 100¢ $150 $193 +$43 (+28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $150 $163 +$13 (+9%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Over 17¢ 24¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 42¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 42¢ 56¢ $100 $133 +$33 (+33%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 70¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Spain 11¢ 14¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 66¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 75¢ 89¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 86¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 86¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 98¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 99¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 74¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $150 $92 −$58 (-38%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 32¢ 46¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 34¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 17¢ 26¢ $20 $29 +$10 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 163 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C or higher on June 15 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 21 $1 −$18 -2885%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 17¢ $20 40m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $51 41m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 41m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $101 41m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 56m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 11¢ $103 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 10¢ $15 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $13 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $51 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $339 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $230 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $139 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 4¢ $15 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $31 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 8¢ $31 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 44¢ $88 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $96 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 11¢ $9 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 12¢ $23 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,458.97 · official $3,464.47 (match) · 618 history records