Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6281…b0c1 crypto 695 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate54%376W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$74
14 days−$127
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$10
sports 14% −$42
weather 2% −$5
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 +3.7% -6.2% 72% 35% -4.9%
≤30d 692 -12.6% -21.0% 54% 32% -10.8%
≤90d 692 -12.6% -21.0% 54% 32% -10.8%
all 692 -12.6% -21.0% 54% 32% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 32% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 22% -19.4%
15% -35.4% 16% -27.2%
20% -41.8% 14% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses376 / 316
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)692 / 695
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 692 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.77 · official $30.77 (match) · 1293 history records