Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
62 0x6282…c9f0 crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$672 (-1%) realized −$585 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate89%73W / 9L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$908per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$1,728
other 19% +$1,676
sports 9% +$352
politics 2% −$1,228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 33% -13.6%
≤30d 6 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 33% -13.6%
≤90d 13 +4.5% -5.4% 92% 31% -7.2%
all 82 +4.0% -5.9% 89% 17% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 17% -10.5%
10% -14.9% 11% -19.1%
15% -23.2% 6% -26.9%
20% -30.7% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,313) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$648 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized−$585
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses73 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage131d
Avg bet$908
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 78¢ 64¢ $500 $413 −$87 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $506 +$49 +10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $302 −$188 -62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $500 +$15 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $203 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 18 $206 +$128 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 04 $1,990 +$19 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 04 $500 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $1,931 +$53 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $443 +$47 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 23 $700 +$32 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $1,653 +$199 +12%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner Mar 16 $1,587 +$66 +4%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 15 $1,571 +$16 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 11 $1,463 +$108 +7%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play Mar 06 $1,313 +$150 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $905 +$408 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Feb 25 $738 +$167 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $960 −$52 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $1,093 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Feb 24 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 202 Feb 24 $679 −$450 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Feb 23 $311 +$502 +161%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 21 $715 +$16 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 21 $700 +$15 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 21 $192 +$508 +265%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 20 $536 +$5 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 20 $531 +$5 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 20 $522 +$9 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 20 $71 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $601 +$15 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 20 $69 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Feb 20 $3,433 −$3,433 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 20 $68 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 20 $52 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 20 $67 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 20 $65 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 20 $65 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 20 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $130 −$66 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $100 +$30 +30%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Feb 20 $397 +$4 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Feb 20 $393 +$4 +1%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 19 $520 +$5 +1%
XRP Up or Down - February 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 19 $514 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 19 $505 +$9 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 18 $489 +$9 +2%
XRP Up or Down - February 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 18 $499 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 78¢ $503 8m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $547 19m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $7 19m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $506 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 32¢ $113 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 83¢ $302 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $227 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $203 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,990 75d
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 75d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,931 83d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $490 86d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $443 86d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $0 88d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $731 88d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $700 88d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,852 93d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,653 93d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner BUY Nongshim RedForce 96¢ $1,587 95d
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs BUY Paper Rex 99¢ $1,571 96d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,571 100d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,463 100d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play SELL Paper Rex 94¢ $1,463 104d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play BUY Paper Rex 85¢ $1,313 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.46 · official $516.03 · 205 history records