Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x6283…8613 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+3%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$10
other 25% +$47
politics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 0% -8.9%
all 34 +10.5% -0.0% 44% 12% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 12% -6.5%
10% -9.6% 6% -15.5%
15% -18.3% 3% -23.6%
20% -26.3% 3% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×25.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×29.35 per $1 lost it wins $29.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage304d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $174 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $93 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $183 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $176 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $170 +$7 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $76 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $87 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $85 +$3 +4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $41 +$10 +23%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $11 +$33 +300%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 24 $2 $0 +11%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 23 $2 $0 -4%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $47 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $13 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $73 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $21 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $93 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $82 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $80 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $83 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records