Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6286…f59c world 122 markets active 10h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,847 (+9%) realized +$11,283 · open −$1,436
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%57W / 141L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$868per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,162
7 days−$3,514
14 days−$3,015
30 days−$1,901
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$13,351
other 1% −$186
finance 1% −$435
crypto 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -39.8% -45.5% 13% 12% -24.0%
≤30d 128 -27.4% -34.3% 24% 18% -9.9%
≤90d 157 -15.3% -23.4% 24% 18% -1.5%
all 198 +8.3% -2.0% 29% 22% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 22% +10.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 18% +0.3%
15% -19.9% 15% -9.4%
20% -27.8% 13% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +50% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$77 · ×4.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$3,534
Realized+$11,283
Unrealized−$1,436
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses57 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)198 / 122
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$868
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,509 $1,658 +$149 (+10%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $769 $799 +$29 (+4%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $350 $367 +$17 (+5%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $737 $276 −$462 (-63%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $230 $124 −$106 (-46%)
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? Yes 35¢ 11¢ $112 $35 −$76 (-69%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $300 $34 −$267 (-89%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $146 $21 −$126 (-86%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-49%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $270 $18 −$252 (-93%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $33 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $60 $13 −$47 (-78%)
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $76 $11 −$65 (-85%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $14 $1 −$12 (-91%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 6¢ 0¢ $122 $1 −$121 (-99%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Jun 20 $110 −$110 -100%
Israel strike on Damascus by December 31? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jun 20 $333 −$291 -87%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -67%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 26, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $9 −$6 -67%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? Jun 20 $256 −$194 -76%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $1 +$6 +495%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $107 −$54 -50%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $26 −$15 -59%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jun 20 $172 −$172 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 19, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 29, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $24 +$124 +513%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 20 $7 −$9 -120%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Jun 20 $451 −$785 -174%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Indonesia join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island in the 2025 New York City Mayora Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 21, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Jun 20 $130 −$1,071 -824%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jun 20 $75 −$167 -221%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in October 2025? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? Jun 20 $33 −$32 -97%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 9, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $6 +$22 +343%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jun 20 $145 −$386 -266%
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$10 -111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 0¢ $0 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 0¢ $0 11h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 0¢ $1 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 0¢ $0 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $46 19h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 20h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $67 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $769 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $96 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 32h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 32h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 32h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 32h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $713 40h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $36 42h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 43h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 43h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 43h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 43h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 43h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 43h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,533.76 · official $3,533.76 (match) · 3500 history records