Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

62 0x628d…e642 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$54 · open −$42

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$461per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$659now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+4.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+15.5%	+4.5%	100%	50%	+15.4%
≤30d	2	+15.5%	+4.5%	100%	50%	+15.4%
≤90d	2	+15.5%	+4.5%	100%	50%	+15.4%
all	2	+15.5%	+4.5%	100%	50%	+15.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.5%	50%	+15.4%
10%	-5.5%	50%	+4.4%
15%	-14.6%	0%	-5.7%
20%	-23.0%	0%	-15.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$157 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$659

Realized+$54

Unrealized−$42

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$461

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	91¢	86¢	$700	$658	−$42 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$102	+$1	+1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$1,041	+$314	+30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	91¢	$702	0m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	38¢	$103	6m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$102	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$780	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$574	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	73¢	$575	2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$466	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $658.65 · official $658.65 (match) · 8 history records