Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x628d…432e
sports · 6 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$19 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$106
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 48¢ 46¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 65¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+35%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $29 +$30 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $30 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $16 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $20 9h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $20 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $16 28h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $54 29h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $29 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -35.1%
≤30d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -35.1%
≤90d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -35.1%
all 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 50% -35.1%
10% -16.1% 50% -41.3%
15% -24.2% 50% -47.0%
20% -31.6% 50% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.12 · official $106.12 (match) · 9 history records