Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x6290…d7c1 other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$509 (+20%) realized +$533 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$327
14 days+$572
30 days+$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$103
sports 41% +$678
crypto 2% −$6
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +15.0% +4.0% 33% 33% +4.1%
≤30d 54 +17.2% +6.0% 33% 33% +13.1%
≤90d 54 +17.2% +6.0% 33% 33% +13.1%
all 54 +17.2% +6.0% 33% 33% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 33% +13.1%
10% -4.1% 33% +2.2%
15% -13.4% 33% -7.6%
20% -21.9% 26% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$30 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$533
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage8d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 49¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-29%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$40 +40%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$51 -50%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$73 +712%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 +$212 +414%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$46 +45%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $152 −$10 -7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 +$33 +66%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $20 +$91 +442%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $21 −$19 -92%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$30 +292%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$56 -55%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 16m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 16m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $142 50m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 34h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 34h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 34h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $48 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $147 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.40 · official $206.40 (match) · 95 history records