Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6293…d14d other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-20%) realized −$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$7
world 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-64.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -61.1% -64.8% 33% 33% -82.2%
≤30d 3 -61.1% -64.8% 33% 33% -82.2%
≤90d 3 -61.1% -64.8% 33% 33% -82.2%
all 3 -61.1% -64.8% 33% 33% -82.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.8% 33% -82.2%
10% -68.2% 0% -83.9%
15% -71.3% 0% -85.5%
20% -74.1% 0% -86.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)3 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 19¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.97 · official $23.97 · 21 history records