Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6297…80bb crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+8%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$8
sports 8% +$6
other 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 44% -9.9%
≤30d 45 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 44% -9.9%
≤90d 45 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 44% -9.9%
all 45 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 44% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 44% -9.9%
10% -14.3% 42% -18.6%
15% -22.6% 40% -26.4%
20% -30.2% 38% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +383%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +287%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records