Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x6297…517e
weather · 208 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$839 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$759 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$23
Realized+$759
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses106 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)258 / 208
Avg bet$121
Trades / day231.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 258 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$369
7 days+$222
14 days+$758
30 days+$759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+354%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 25? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 16? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 4? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on May 25 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 16? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -101%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 17? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 23? Jun 12 $0 $0 -116%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 17? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on May Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 24? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 16? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 87°F or below on May 21? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 16? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 21? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 20? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 24? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 20? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 15? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 25? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 23? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 23? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 21? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 15? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 23? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 16? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -128%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 16? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 23? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 17? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 21? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 16? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on May 21? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on May 17? Jun 12 $8 −$4 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 16? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 23? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on May 22? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ma Jun 12 $27 −$21 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 15? Jun 12 $13 +$16 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June SELL Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY Yes 16¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY No 1¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY No 1¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -16.0% -24.0% 28% 9% -10.9%
≤30d 258 +2.6% -7.1% 41% 15% -8.3%
≤90d 258 +2.6% -7.1% 41% 15% -8.3%
all 258 +2.6% -7.1% 41% 15% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover231.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 15% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 11% -17.1%
15% -24.1% 10% -25.1%
20% -31.6% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.53 · official $22.53 (match) · 3500 history records