Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x6299…2853 other 28 markets active 1d ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+3%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$7
sports 45% −$3
crypto 6% −$2
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.3% +7.9% 21% 21% +14.2%
≤30d 19 +19.3% +7.9% 21% 21% +14.2%
≤90d 23 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 17% -13.1%
all 26 +2.2% -7.6% 23% 23% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 23% -6.5%
10% -16.4% 19% -15.4%
15% -24.5% 19% -23.6%
20% -31.9% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage234d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $2 +$3 +206%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +510%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Second half draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Frenkie de Jong: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $0 $0 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar to win the second half? Jun 13 $1 +$8 +786%
Silvan Widmer: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Feb 03 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-14? Dec 29 $2 $0 +22%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $2 +$2 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY DR Congo 32¢ $2 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 AND Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots BUY 13¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 2d
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Second half draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Frenkie de Jong: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Frenkie de Jong: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner BUY Curaçao 18¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Silvan Widmer: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Qatar to win the second half? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Astralis 28¢ $1 134d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY 3DMAX $1 135d
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 135d
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-14? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 171d
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 176d
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 176d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.73 (match) · 43 history records