Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x629a…a191 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate79%22W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$140
crypto 34% +$160
tech 29% +$1
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 28 -2.1% -11.4% 79% 11% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 11% -8.6%
10% -19.9% 7% -17.3%
15% -27.6% 7% -25.3%
20% -34.7% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses22 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage223d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $204 $203 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 11 $203 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 29 $199 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 25 $206 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 2? Mar 02 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10AM ET Mar 02 $202 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 01 $62 +$133 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 01 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 01 $39 +$38 +98%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23? Jan 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January Jan 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January Jan 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Jan 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jan 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? Dec 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 11? Nov 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 13 $33 −$27 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 12 $54 −$51 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 11 $65 −$65 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $204 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 42d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 42d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 74d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $100 84d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 100¢ $103 89d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $100 90d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $103 90d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 99¢ $61 90d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 99¢ $42 90d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $100 94d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $103 99d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $100 99d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 111d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 111d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $202 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $202 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $12 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $18 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.49 · official $203.49 (match) · 100 history records