Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x629b…995a
politics · 63 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$961,187 +76%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36,621 · open +$49,898
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$604,089
Realized−$36,621
Unrealized+$49,898
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses13 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions53
Markets (closed)99 / 63
History coverage36d
Avg bet$20,054
Trades / day87.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 53 History 99 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41,781
7 days−$47,910
14 days−$39,529
30 days−$37,618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $281,229 $324,237 +$43,008 (+15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $133,170 $140,430 +$7,260 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 69¢ 96¢ $14,593 $20,451 +$5,858 (+40%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $12,788 $15,897 +$3,109 (+24%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 74¢ 99¢ $10,536 $14,205 +$3,669 (+35%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 79¢ 80¢ $11,701 $11,824 +$123 (+1%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 83¢ 100¢ $6,848 $8,196 +$1,348 (+20%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $7,239 $7,696 +$457 (+6%)
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 77¢ 81¢ $5,374 $5,703 +$330 (+6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $5,261 $5,649 +$388 (+7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $4,293 $4,625 +$332 (+8%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No 88¢ 92¢ $3,933 $4,111 +$178 (+5%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 61¢ 57¢ $4,284 $4,062 −$222 (-5%)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $3,389 $3,521 +$132 (+4%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? No 89¢ 100¢ $3,095 $3,470 +$375 (+12%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 82¢ 90¢ $2,824 $3,082 +$258 (+9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 64¢ 90¢ $2,146 $2,998 +$852 (+40%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? No 89¢ 98¢ $2,346 $2,600 +$254 (+11%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 71¢ 74¢ $2,366 $2,450 +$83 (+4%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $1,966 $2,207 +$242 (+12%)
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $1,325 $2,015 +$690 (+52%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $1,824 $1,973 +$150 (+8%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 63¢ 72¢ $1,400 $1,611 +$211 (+15%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 42¢ 44¢ $1,414 $1,489 +$75 (+5%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? No 78¢ 92¢ $1,207 $1,419 +$211 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jeannette Jara win at least 32% of votes in the first round? Jun 14 $1,278 −$1,278 -100%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 15% or Jun 14 $643 −$643 -100%
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election? Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 14 $333 −$333 -100%
Will Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will António José Seguro win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Party for Freedom win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherland Jun 14 $803 −$803 -100%
Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister? Jun 14 $681 −$681 -100%
Will ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? Jun 14 $2,163 −$2,163 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will JA21 win 13 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary e Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MDG win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? Jun 14 $955 −$955 -100%
Will SPD get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 14 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Jun 14 $108 −$108 -100%
Will SPD get less than 7% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Jun 14 $1,147 −$1,147 -100%
Will the Red Bloc win by 12–15 seats? Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%? Jun 14 $2,281 −$1,942 -85%
Christian Democratic Party (KrF) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Johannes Kaiser win at least 19% of votes in the first round? Jun 14 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%? Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Jun 14 $479 −$479 -100%
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%? Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Jara win by 3-6%? Jun 14 $1,436 −$1,436 -100%
Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 14 $1,634 −$1,634 -100%
Will Ciucu win by 6-9%? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Quiroga win by 7-12%? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean president Jun 14 $2,558 −$2,558 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chil Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Will SPOLU get between 17% and 20% of the vote in the Czech election? Jun 14 $1,614 −$1,614 -100%
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in Jun 14 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Jun 14 $830 +$2,666 +321%
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Daniel Baluta finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-elec Jun 14 $755 −$744 -98%
Will Evelyn Matthei come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilea Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ciucu win by at least 12%? Jun 14 $339 −$339 -100%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 14 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 14 $334 −$334 -100%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Jun 14 $845 +$188 +22%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Jun 14 $2,574 −$1,977 -77%
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be at least 46% Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Daniel Băluță get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Buchares Jun 14 $619 −$619 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Jun 14 $3 −$1,958 -60801%
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the red bloc win more than 92 seats in the Norwegian election? Jun 14 $657 −$657 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 87% +$44,120
other 12% −$1,387
world 1% +$12,604
sports 0% −$278
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $7,466 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $64 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $43 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $11 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $697 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $103 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $26 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $326 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $17 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $3 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $26 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $64 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $5 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $19 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $7 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $15 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $26 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $118 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 82¢ $15 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 82¢ $141 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 81¢ $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 81¢ $16 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 81¢ $27 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 81¢ $41 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 81¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-71.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -95.3% -95.8% 1% 1% -83.9%
≤30d 93 -74.4% -76.9% 10% 10% -36.4%
≤90d 99 -68.4% -71.4% 13% 13% -34.5%
all 99 -68.4% -71.4% 13% 13% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.4% 13% -34.5%
10% -74.2% 12% -40.8%
15% ← realistic here -76.6% 10% -46.5%
20% -78.9% 8% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604,089.33 · official $604,080.81 (match) · 3500 history records