Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x629c…7e24 world 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$1
other 27% $0
politics 19% −$2
sports 9% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 20 +95.9% +77.3% 30% 10% -9.8%
≤90d 64 +29.2% +16.9% 30% 3% -9.7%
all 77 +24.3% +12.5% 35% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 3% -9.6%
10% +1.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -8.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -17.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage337d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $33 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $2 $0 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $22 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $13 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $166 +$6 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $135 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $12 −$9 -74%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $20 +$3 +13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $114 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $134 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $6 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? May 18 $32 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $32 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $29 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $32 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $82 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $1 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $2 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $8 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $31 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $22 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $31 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $29 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.15 · official $33.15 (match) · 304 history records