Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:35:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x629e…6be4 other 506 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$206 (-4%) realized −$130 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%175W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$31
14 days+$29
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$201
world 15% −$264
culture 7% +$12
politics 3% −$33
crypto 3% −$58
sports 2% −$30
weather 2% −$26
tech 1% −$24
finance 1% −$22
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -7.1% -16.0% 67% 33% -5.2%
≤30d 103 -30.9% -37.5% 49% 28% -29.4%
≤90d 291 -19.1% -26.8% 46% 32% -13.3%
all 420 -20.8% -28.4% 42% 31% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 31% -13.5%
10% -35.2% 24% -21.8%
15% -41.5% 20% -29.3%
20% -47.2% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$828
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses175 / 245
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions86
Markets (closed)420 / 506
History coverage306d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $83 $66 −$16 (-20%)
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 67¢ 85¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 41¢ 74¢ $20 $37 +$16 (+80%)
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Megaquake by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $32 $34 +$3 (+8%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $27 $34 +$6 (+23%)
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $37 $28 −$9 (-23%)
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 84¢ 68¢ $34 $27 −$6 (-19%)
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $37 $25 −$12 (-32%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+16%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 94¢ $16 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 88¢ 84¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-31%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 54¢ 100¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+85%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 48¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+50%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 14¢ 16¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $22 $14 −$8 (-37%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 55¢ 90¢ $8 $14 +$5 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $26 +$5 +18%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $19 +$5 +26%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $13 −$7 -58%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $33 +$11 +33%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 24 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $17 −$6 -36%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 $0 +8%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $17 +$3 +16%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -7%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +46%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 21 $9 −$8 -85%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $19 $0 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 20 $7 $0 -5%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $19 +$11 +55%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $17 +$8 +49%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $24 +$1 +6%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 74¢ $37 1h
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 85¢ $43 2h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2h
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $8 2h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $8 2h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 14¢ $7 5h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 81¢ $24 28h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 14¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 88¢ $18 2d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 92¢ $18 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $6 2d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 86¢ $17 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 14¢ $6 3d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $1 3d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $19 3d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $827.87 · official $827.61 (match) · 1613 history records