Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T00:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x629f…f868 crypto 847 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-3%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%338W / 509L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$134
14 days−$305
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$239
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -11.9% -20.3% 31% 18% -15.4%
≤30d 829 -11.0% -19.5% 39% 32% -16.4%
≤90d 829 -11.0% -19.5% 39% 32% -16.4%
all 847 -10.7% -19.2% 40% 32% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 32% -16.0%
10% -26.9% 24% -24.1%
15% -34.0% 17% -31.4%
20% -40.5% 13% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses338 / 509
Open positions0
Markets (closed)847 / 847
History coverage155d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 847 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $86 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$13 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2759 history records