Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62a0…e73c crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-21%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +27.4% +15.2% 22% 22% -39.5%
≤30d 9 +27.4% +15.2% 22% 22% -39.5%
≤90d 9 +27.4% +15.2% 22% 22% -39.5%
all 9 +27.4% +15.2% 22% 22% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.2% 22% -39.5%
10% ← realistic here +4.2% 22% -45.3%
15% -5.9% 22% -50.6%
20% -15.1% 22% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$12 +275%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $9 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records