Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x62a0…6869 crypto 427 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+2%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate79%336W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 426 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 65% -7.0%
≤30d 427 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 64% -7.0%
≤90d 427 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 64% -7.0%
all 427 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 64% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 64% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 13% -15.9%
15% -26.9% 3% -24.0%
20% -34.1% 1% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses336 / 91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)427 / 427
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 427 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $0 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $0 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 33m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1066 history records