Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x62a0…42af crypto 694 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+2%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate83%575W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +3.3% -6.5% 87% 65% -5.8%
≤30d 385 +0.2% -9.4% 82% 63% -8.6%
≤90d 694 -0.4% -9.8% 83% 58% -8.7%
all 694 -0.4% -9.8% 83% 58% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 58% -8.7%
10% -18.5% 31% -17.4%
15% -26.3% 9% -25.4%
20% -33.6% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses575 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)694 / 694
History coverage44d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 694 Trades
no open positions (119 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.06 · official $20.06 (match) · 1272 history records