Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62a1…d53e sports 619 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$603 (+2%) realized +$614 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%164W / 447L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$506est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$254
7 days+$387
14 days+$307
30 days−$920
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$55
other 19% −$6
crypto 1% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +53.6% +39.0% 46% 46% +45.1%
≤30d 59 -11.6% -20.0% 36% 36% -37.8%
≤90d 611 -11.9% -20.3% 27% 26% -10.0%
all 611 -11.9% -20.3% 27% 26% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 26% -10.0%
10% -27.9% 25% -18.6%
15% -34.9% 24% -26.5%
20% -41.3% 21% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$34 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$614
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses164 / 447
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$506
Open positions1
Markets (closed)611 / 619
History coverage90d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 379 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $62 −$32 -52%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $61 +$233 +379%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $20 +$123 +611%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $93 +$75 +80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $98 +$56 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $82 +$93 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$13 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $61 −$20 -33%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 04 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $10 +$41 +399%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 04 $11 −$10 -88%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 04 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $36 +$23 +62%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 +$9 +84%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $16 +$12 +73%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $102 −$50 -49%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 30 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $51 +$11 +22%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $34 −$34 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $83 −$82 -98%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacifi May 22 $10 +$13 +124%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $64 −$63 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 22 $22 −$11 -52%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europ May 22 $51 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $276 −$271 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $306 −$300 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $51 +$68 +134%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta May 20 $51 +$59 +117%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 20 $41 −$22 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 7h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $40 25h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 25h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 24¢ $144 25h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 20¢ $61 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 3¢ $4 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 11¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 BUY 10¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 29¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $168 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $22 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $71 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $61 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $98 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 38¢ $89 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 15¢ $67 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 33¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $82 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $45 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $81 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 43¢ $20 14d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY ASTRAL 49¢ $30 14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 45¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.45 · official $19.45 (match) · 1081 history records