Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
62 0x62a1…0827 sports 464 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$269 (+2%) realized +$247 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%230W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days−$53
14 days−$144
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$182
other 5% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -20.0% -27.6% 42% 42% -12.8%
≤30d 349 -6.0% -15.0% 48% 47% -9.4%
≤90d 460 -2.6% -11.8% 50% 50% -8.6%
all 460 -2.6% -11.8% 50% 50% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 50% -8.6%
10% -20.3% 48% -17.3%
15% -28.0% 46% -25.3%
20% -35.0% 41% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$247
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses230 / 230
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions4
Markets (closed)460 / 464
History coverage69d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Seattle Mariners 50¢ 86¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+73%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ 79¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 69¢ 64¢ $41 $38 −$3 (-8%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Atlanta Braves 61¢ 62¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $38 +$42 +109%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $26 +$34 +129%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $25 +$35 +140%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $88 +$12 +13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $28 +$22 +76%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $30 +$30 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $65 +$45 +70%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $63 +$27 +44%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 +$40 +206%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 27 $26 +$4 +17%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $28 +$22 +76%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $36 +$14 +40%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$14 +93%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $13 +$7 +50%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $17 +$13 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Hayu Kinoshita Jun 24 $4 +$6 +134%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $35 +$15 +44%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 +$10 +52%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $12 +$8 +62%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $4 +$6 +146%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Clervie Ngounoue Jun 23 $17 +$13 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 69¢ $42 26m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ $45 29m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 50¢ $19 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 50¢ $11 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $31 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $25 20h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $26 20h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 15¢ $3 23h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 15¢ $8 23h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 56¢ $28 23h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 15¢ $5 23h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 32¢ $16 23h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $29 45h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 83¢ $50 45h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $30 47h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 69¢ $63 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2d
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 85¢ $26 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 56¢ $28 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $28 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $46 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $65 2d
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $11 2d
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Grigor Dimitrov 37¢ $11 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 71¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.65 · official $168.65 (match) · 1043 history records