Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62a2…9150 sports 398 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+4%) realized +$44 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%214W / 163L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$16
14 days−$10
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$63
crypto 27% −$19
other 13% +$11
finance 2% −$13
world 2% −$12
weather 1% +$3
culture 1% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -34.9% -41.1% 26% 21% -23.6%
≤30d 49 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 35% -5.0%
≤90d 377 +6.7% -3.5% 57% 52% -6.1%
all 377 +6.7% -3.5% 57% 52% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 52% -6.1%
10% -12.7% 47% -15.1%
15% -21.1% 42% -23.3%
20% -28.9% 34% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses214 / 163
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions21
Markets (closed)377 / 398
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the Eastern Conference? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pavel Dorofeyev win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Jordan Staal lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-2 be the exact series outco Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $6 +$19 +310%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$27 +882%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +55%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $3 +$4 +134%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 02 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $2 +$2 +101%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 27 $1 +$4 +388%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $2 +$3 +124%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 27 $2 +$3 +124%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2 +$1 +73%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 18 $3 +$2 +60%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 13 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will Jordan Staal lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 2d
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-2 be the exact series outco BUY Yes 84¢ $3 2d
Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 3d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 12d
Will Pavel Dorofeyev win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 14d
Will Logan Stankoven win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.92 · official $47.92 (match) · 970 history records