Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62a3…9f52 sports 18 markets active 4d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-44%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$21
other 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.5% -16.3% 33% 33% -23.1%
≤30d 18 -40.4% -46.1% 28% 28% -50.3%
≤90d 18 -40.4% -46.1% 28% 28% -50.3%
all 18 -40.4% -46.1% 28% 28% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 28% -50.3%
10% -51.2% 28% -55.1%
15% -56.0% 22% -59.4%
20% -60.3% 22% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage73d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$3 +262%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$3 +32%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Q May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Wolves Esports vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omeg May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $3 +$3 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 27¢ $1 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 13¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $2 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays $1 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks $2 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $13 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 75¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 75¢ $5 11d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $3 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $3 22d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 24d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu BUY Nongshim RedForce 59¢ $1 24d
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres BUY Athletics 11¢ $1 24d
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres BUY Athletics 13¢ $1 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 25d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 25d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Q BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $2 25d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $3 25d
Valorant: Wolves Esports vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omeg BUY Wolves Esports 48¢ $15 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records