Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:28:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62a4…c680 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,408 (-15%) realized −$5,449 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$813per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1,041now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,254
7 days−$1,390
14 days−$3,891
30 days−$2,703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$5,253
sports 2% −$627
crypto 0% −$40
politics 0% −$10
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.9% -24.8% 30% 30% -20.7%
≤30d 28 -23.8% -31.0% 32% 32% -19.9%
≤90d 44 -33.9% -40.2% 27% 27% -25.2%
all 44 -33.9% -40.2% 27% 27% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 27% -25.2%
10% -46.0% 25% -32.3%
15% -51.2% 20% -38.9%
20% -56.0% 14% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$1,015) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -40% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$486 vs −$369 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,041
Realized−$5,449
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage52d
Avg bet$813
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1,000 $1,041 +$41 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $811 +$669 +82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $188 −$183 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,760 −$1,739 -63%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $514 −$56 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,232 −$78 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,015 −$30 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,821 −$38 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $858 −$858 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,911 +$441 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,013 +$323 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,012 +$626 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the e Jun 17 $9 −$7 -80%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $162 +$75 +46%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,025 −$153 -15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $701 −$693 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $492 −$479 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,531 −$1,732 -68%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $243 −$237 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,994 +$2,175 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +216%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,002 −$988 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 27 $1,513 −$7 -0%
New pandemic in 2026? May 27 $2,505 −$47 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $21 −$7 -33%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $6,854 −$3,166 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? May 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Marco Rubio say "President" or "Trump" 30+ times during press bri May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 05 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6? May 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,019 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,480 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $188 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $811 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,746 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $459 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $475 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $966 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $985 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1,029 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $858 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $514 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $514 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,911 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,336 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,638 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 9d
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the e SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $236 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $162 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $190 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,040.54 · official $1,040.54 (match) · 125 history records