Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x62a8…2132
weather · 936 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,433 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,321 · open −$204
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,320
Realized−$1,321
Unrealized−$204
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses406 / 426
Open positions165
Markets (closed)832 / 936
History coverage17d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day172.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 165 History 832 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,198
7 days−$1,051
14 days−$1,180
30 days−$1,321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? No 64¢ 100¢ $38 $59 +$21 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 76¢ 74¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 54¢ 50¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 80¢ 100¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? No 81¢ 100¢ $23 $29 +$5 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? No 82¢ 100¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 72¢ 96¢ $19 $26 +$6 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? No 80¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 78¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? No 77¢ 100¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? No 81¢ 100¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 82¢ 99¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 78¢ 96¢ $19 $24 +$4 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 83¢ 98¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 70¢ 84¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 81¢ 94¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? No 70¢ 80¢ $20 $22 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? No 85¢ 99¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 56¢ 64¢ $20 $22 +$3 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 83¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? No 85¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 78¢ 87¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 26? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on May 1? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 29? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 30 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 22? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 1? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 29? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 28? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 21? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 8? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 8? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 22? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 28 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24? Jun 14 $14 −$16 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 28? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 5? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 9? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 5? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$474
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $20 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 403 -33.3% -39.7% 43% 27% -24.9%
≤30d 832 -17.6% -25.5% 49% 29% -18.0%
≤90d 832 -17.6% -25.5% 49% 29% -18.0%
all 832 -17.6% -25.5% 49% 29% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover172.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 29% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 14% -25.9%
15% -39.1% 6% -33.0%
20% -45.1% 2% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,320.44 · official $2,319.71 (match) · 3500 history records